Provider: NIHR Journals Library Content:text/plain; charset="UTF-8" TY - JOUR LB - 1. AU - Bryan, S AU - Williams, I AU - McIver, S TI - Seeing the NICE side of cost-effectiveness analysis: a qualitative investigation of the use of CEA in NICE technology appraisals J2 - Health Econ PY - 2007 VL - 16 SP - 179 EP - 193 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1133 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 2. AU - Bothwell, LE AU - Greene, JA AU - Podolsky, SH AU - Jones, DS TI - Assessing the gold standard – lessons from the history of RCTs J2 - N Engl J Med PY - 2016 VL - 374 SP - 2175 EP - 2181 UR - https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMms1604593 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 3. AU - Chavez-MacGregor, M AU - Giordano, SH TI - Randomized clinical trials and observational studies: is there a battle? J2 - J Clin Oncol PY - 2016 VL - 34 SP - 772 EP - 773 UR - https://doi.org/10.1200/jco.2015.64.7487 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 4. AU - Rothwell, PM TI - External validity of randomised controlled trials: ‘to whom do the results of this trial apply?’ J2 - Lancet PY - 2005 VL - 365 SP - 82 EP - 93 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(04)17670-8 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 5. AU - Frieden, TR TI - Evidence for health decision making - beyond randomized, controlled trials J2 - N Engl J Med PY - 2017 VL - 377 SP - 465 EP - 475 UR - https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMra1614394 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 6. AU - Hora, SC TI - Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probability elicitation with an example from hazardous waste management J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 1996 VL - 54 SP - 217 EP - 223 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00077-4 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 7. AU - O’Hagan, A AU - Buck, C AU - Daneshkhah, A AU - Eiser, J AU - Garthwaite, P AU - Jenkinson, D TI - Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities CY - Chichester PB - John Wiley & Sons PY - 2006 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/0470033312 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 8. AU - Griffin, SC AU - Claxton, KP AU - Palmer, SJ AU - Sculpher, MJ TI - Dangerous omissions: the consequences of ignoring decision uncertainty J2 - Health Econ PY - 2011 VL - 20 SP - 212 EP - 224 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1586 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 9. AU - Babuscia, A AU - Cheung, K-M TI - An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results J2 - J R Statist Soc PY - 2014 VL - 177 SP - 475 EP - 497 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12028 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 10. AU - Ayyub, BM TI - Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks CY - Boca Raton, FL PB - CRC Press PY - 2001 UR - https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420040906 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 11. AU - Peel, A AU - Jenks, M AU - Choudhury, M AU - Lovett, R AU - Rejon-Parrilla, JC AU - Sims, A AU - Craig, J TI - Use of expert judgement across NICE guidance-making programmes: a review of current processes and suitability of existing tools to support the use of expert elicitation J2 - Appl Health Econ Health Policy PY - 2018 VL - 16 SP - 819 EP - 836 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-018-0415-5 ER - TY - EDBOOK LB - 12. AU - Soares, MO AU - Bojke, L TI - Expert Elicitation to Inform health Technology Assessment AU - Price, CC TI - International Series in Operations Research and Management Science CY - UK PB - Springer PY - 2018 SP - 479 EP - 494 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_18 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 13. AU - Cooke, RM TI - Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science CY - Oxford PB - Oxford University Press PY - 1991 ER - TY - ELEC LB - 14. AU - O’Hagan, T AU - Oakley, J TI - The Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) PY - 2008 UR - www.tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/ M1 - 18 November 2019 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 15. AU - Colson, AR AU - Cooke, RM TI - Expert elicitation: using the classical model to validate experts’ judgments J2 - Rev Environ Econ Policy PY - 2018 VL - 12 SP - 113 EP - 132 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rex022 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 16. AU - European Food Safety Authority TI - Guidance on expert knowledge elicitation in food and feed safety risk assessment J2 - EFSA J PY - 2014 VL - 12 UR - https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2014.3734 ER - TY - GEN LB - 17. AU - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) TI - Expert Elicitation Task Force White Paper CY - Washington, DC PB - EPA PY - 2009 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 18. AU - Kaplan, S TI - ‘Expert information’ versus ‘expert opinion.’ Another approach to the problem of eliciting/combining/using expert knowledge in PRA J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 1992 VL - 35 SP - 61 EP - 72 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(92)90023-e ER - TY - JOUR LB - 19. AU - Lindley, DV AU - Tversky, A AU - Brown, RV TI - On the reconciliation of probability assessments J2 - J R Stat Soc Series A PY - 1979 VL - 142 SP - 146 EP - 162 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2345078 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 20. AU - Garthwaite, PH AU - Kadane, JB AU - O’Hagan, A TI - Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions J2 - J Am Stat Assoc PY - 2005 VL - 100 SP - 680 EP - 701 UR - https://doi.org/10.1198/016214505000000105 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 21. AU - Cooke, RM AU - Goossens, LHJ TI - Procedures guide for structured expert judgement in accident consequence modelling J2 - Radiat Prot Dosimetry PY - 2000 VL - 90 SP - 303 EP - 309 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a033152 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 22. AU - Choy, SL AU - O’Leary, R AU - Mengersen, K TI - Elicitation by design in ecology: using expert opinion to inform priors for Bayesian statistical models J2 - Ecology PY - 2009 VL - 90 SP - 265 EP - 277 UR - https://doi.org/10.1890/07-1886.1 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 23. AU - Walls, L AU - Quigley, J TI - Building prior distributions to support Bayesian reliability growth modelling using expert judgement J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2001 VL - 74 SP - 117 EP - 128 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/s0951-8320(01)00069-2 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 24. AU - Budnitz, RJ AU - Apostolakis, G AU - Boore, DM AU - Cluff, LS AU - Coppersmith, KJ AU - Cornell, CA TI - Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts CY - Livermore, CA PB - United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission PY - 1997 UR - https://doi.org/10.2172/479072 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 25. AU - Meyer, MA AU - Booker, JM TI - Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide CY - Philadelphia, PA PB - Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics PY - 2001 UR - https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718485 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 26. AU - Kotra, J AU - Lee, M AU - Eisenberg, N AU - DeWispelare, A TI - Branch Technical Position on the Use of Expert Elicitation in the High-Level Radioactive Waste Program. Division of Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards CY - Livermore, CA PB - United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission PY - 1996 UR - https://doi.org/10.2172/414310 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 27. AU - Keeney, R AU - von Winterfeldt, D TI - Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems J2 - IEEE Trans Eng Manag PY - 1991 VL - 38 UR - https://doi.org/10.1109/17.83752 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 28. AU - Tredger, ERW AU - Lo, JTH AU - Haria, S AU - Lau, HHK AU - Bonello, N AU - Hlavka, B TI - Bias, guess and expert judgement in actuarial work J2 - Br Actuar J PY - 2016 VL - 21 SP - 545 EP - 578 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/s1357321716000155 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 29. AU - Knol, AB AU - Slottje, P AU - van der Sluijs, JP AU - Lebret, E TI - The use of expert elicitation in environmental health impact assessment: a seven step procedure J2 - Environ Health PY - 2010 VL - 9 SP - 19 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/1476-069X-9-19 ER - TY - EDBOOK LB - 30. AU - Gosling, JP TI - SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework AU - Price, CC TI - International Series in Operations Research and Management Science CY - UK PB - Springer PY - 2018 SP - 61 EP - 93 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_4 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 31. AU - Ashcroft, M AU - Austin, R AU - Barnes, K AU - MacDonald, D AU - Makin, S AU - Morgan, S TI - Expert judgement J2 - Br Actuar J PY - 2016 VL - 21 SP - 314 EP - 363 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/S1357321715000239 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 32. AU - Hemming, V AU - Burgman, MA AU - Hanea, AM AU - McBride, MF AU - Wintle, BC TI - A practical guide to structured expert elicitation using the IDEA protocol J2 - Methods Ecol Evol PY - 2018 VL - 9 SP - 169 EP - 180 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12857 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 33. AU - Gilovich, T AU - Griffin, DW AU - Kahneman, D TI - Heuristics and Biases: the Psychology of Intuitive Judgment CY - Cambridge PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 34. AU - Kahneman, D AU - Slovic, P AU - Tversky, A TI - Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases CY - Cambridge PB - New York, NY: Cambridge University Press PY - 1982 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511809477 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 35. AU - Morgan, MG TI - Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy J2 - Proc Natl Acad Sci USA PY - 2014 VL - 111 SP - 7176 EP - 7184 UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319946111 ER - TY - GEN LB - 36. AU - NHS TI - Guide to the Healthcare System in England Including the Statement of NHS Accountability CY - London PB - NHS PY - 2013 ER - TY - ELEC LB - 37. AU - Kershaw, A TI - NHS Vale of York CCG Referral Support Service Useful Information PY - 2017 UR - www.valeofyorkccg.nhs.uk/rss/index.php?id=contact-information M1 - 18 November 2019 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 38. AU - Kay, A TI - The abolition of the GP fundholding scheme: a lesson in evidence-based policy making J2 - Br J Gen Pract PY - 2002 VL - 52 SP - 141 EP - 144 ER - TY - STAT LB - 39. AU - Great Britain TI - Care Act 2014 CY - London PB - The Stationery Office PY - 2014 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 40. AU - Lafond, S AU - Charlesworth, A AU - Roberts, A TI - A Year of Plenty? An Analysis of NHS Finances and Consultant Productivity CY - London PB - The Health Foundation PY - 2017 ER - TY - GEN LB - 41. AU - The King’s Fund TI - Has the Government Delivered a New Era for Public Health? CY - London PB - The King’s Fund PY - 2015 UR - www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/verdict/has-government-delivered-new-era-public-health Y2 - 28 March 2019 ER - TY - GEN LB - 42. AU - NHS TI - Interim Commissioning Policy: Individual Funding Requests CY - London PB - NHS Commissioning Board PY - 2013 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 43. AU - Ham, C AU - Glenn, R TI - Reasonable Rationing: International Experience of Priority Setting in Health Care (State of Health) CY - Milton Keynes PB - Open University Press PY - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 44. AU - Grigore, B AU - Peters, J AU - Hyde, C AU - Stein, K TI - Methods to elicit probability distributions from experts: a systematic review of reported practice in health technology assessment J2 - PharmacoEconomics PY - 2013 VL - 31 SP - 991 EP - 1003 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-013-0092-z ER - TY - GEN LB - 45. AU - National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) TI - Guide to the Process of Technology Appraisal CY - London PB - NICE PY - 2014 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 46. AU - Bennett, P AU - Hare, A AU - Townshend, J TI - Assessing the risk of vCJD transmission via surgery: models for uncertainty and complexity J2 - J Oper Res Soc PY - 2005 VL - 56 SP - 202 EP - 213 UR - https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601899 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 47. AU - Colson, AR AU - Megiddo, I AU - Alvarez-Uria, G AU - Gandra, S AU - Bedford, T AU - Morton, A TI - Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods J2 - PLOS ONE PY - 2019 VL - 14 SP - e0219190 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0219190 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 48. AU - Dallow, N AU - Best, N AU - H Montague, T TI - Better decision making in drug development through adoption of formal prior elicitation J2 - Pharm Stat PY - 2018 VL - 17 SP - 301 EP - 316 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/pst.1854 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 49. AU - Walley, RJ AU - Smith, CL AU - Gale, JD AU - Woodward, P TI - Advantages of a wholly Bayesian approach to assessing efficacy in early drug development: a case study J2 - Pharm Stat PY - 2015 VL - 14 SP - 205 EP - 215 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/pst.1675 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 50. AU - Soares, MO AU - Sharples, L AU - Morton, A AU - Claxton, K AU - Bojke, L TI - Experiences of structured elicitation for model based cost-effectiveness analyses J2 - Value Health PY - 2018 VL - 21 SP - 715 EP - 723 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2018.01.019 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 51. AU - Drummond, M TI - Methods for the Economic Evaluation of Health Care Programmes ET - 4th CY - Oxford PB - Oxford University Press PY - 2015 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 52. AU - Leal, J AU - Wordsworth, S AU - Legood, R AU - Blair, E TI - Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example J2 - Value Health PY - 2007 VL - 10 SP - 195 EP - 203 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1524-4733.2007.00169.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 53. AU - Soares, MO AU - Bojke, L AU - Dumville, J AU - Iglesias, C AU - Cullum, N AU - Claxton, K TI - Methods to elicit experts’ beliefs over uncertain quantities: application to a cost effectiveness transition model of negative pressure wound therapy for severe pressure ulceration J2 - Stat Med PY - 2011 VL - 30 SP - 2363 EP - 2380 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4288 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 54. AU - Haakma, W AU - Steuten, LM AU - Bojke, L AU - IJzerman, MJ TI - Belief elicitation to populate health economic models of medical diagnostic devices in development J2 - Appl Health Econ Health Policy PY - 2014 VL - 12 SP - 327 EP - 334 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-014-0092-y ER - TY - JOUR LB - 55. AU - Bojke, L AU - Claxton, K AU - Bravo-Vergel, Y AU - Sculpher, M AU - Palmer, S AU - Abrams, K TI - Eliciting distributions to populate decision analytic models J2 - Value Health PY - 2010 VL - 13 SP - 557 EP - 564 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1524-4733.2010.00709.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 56. AU - McKenna, C AU - McDaid, C AU - Suekarran, S AU - Hawkins, N AU - Claxton, K AU - Light, K TI - Enhanced external counterpulsation for the treatment of stable angina and heart failure: a systematic review and economic analysis J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2009 VL - 13 IS - 24 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta13240 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 57. AU - Sperber, D AU - Mortimer, D AU - Lorgelly, P AU - Berlowitz, D TI - An expert on every street corner? Methods for eliciting distributions in geographically dispersed opinion pools J2 - Value Health PY - 2013 VL - 16 SP - 434 EP - 437 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2012.10.011 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 58. AU - Fischer, K AU - Lewandowski, D AU - Janssen, MP TI - Estimating unknown parameters in haemophilia using expert judgement elicitation J2 - Haemophilia PY - 2013 VL - 19 SP - e282 EP - e288 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/hae.12166 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 59. AU - Garthwaite, PH AU - Chilcott, JB AU - Jenkinson, DJ AU - Tappenden, P TI - Use of expert knowledge in evaluating costs and benefits of alternative service provisions: a case study J2 - Int J Technol Assess Health Care PY - 2008 VL - 24 SP - 350 EP - 357 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/S026646230808046X ER - TY - JOUR LB - 60. AU - Grigore, B AU - Peters, J AU - Hyde, C AU - Stein, K TI - A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments J2 - BMC Med Res Methodol PY - 2016 VL - 16 SP - 85 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-016-0186-3 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 61. AU - Meads, C AU - Auguste, P AU - Davenport, C AU - Małysiak, S AU - Sundar, S AU - Kowalska, M TI - Positron emission tomography/computerised tomography imaging in detecting and managing recurrent cervical cancer: systematic review of evidence, elicitation of subjective probabilities and economic modeling J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2013 VL - 17 IS - 12 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta17120 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 62. AU - Wilson, EC AU - Stanley, G AU - Mirza, Z TI - The long-term cost to the UK NHS and social services of different durations of IV thiamine (vitamin B1) for chronic alcohol misusers with symptoms of Wernicke’s encephalopathy presenting at the emergency department J2 - Appl Health Econ Health Policy PY - 2016 VL - 14 SP - 205 EP - 215 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40258-015-0214-1 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 63. AU - Brodtkorb, T-H TI - Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Health Technologies When Evidence is Scarce CY - Linköping PB - Linköping University PY - 2010 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 64. AU - Cao, Q AU - Postmus, D AU - Hillege, HL AU - Buskens, E TI - Probability elicitation to inform early health economic evaluations of new medical technologies: a case study in heart failure disease management J2 - Value Health PY - 2013 VL - 16 SP - 529 EP - 535 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 65. AU - Speight, PM AU - Palmer, S AU - Moles, DR AU - Downer, MC AU - Smith, DH AU - Henriksson, M AU - Augustovski, F TI - The cost-effectiveness of screening for oral cancer in primary care J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2006 VL - 10 IS - 14 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta10140 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 66. AU - Poncet, A AU - Gencer, B AU - Blondon, M AU - Gex-Fabry, M AU - Combescure, C AU - Shah, D TI - Electrocardiographic screening for prolonged QT interval to reduce sudden cardiac death in psychiatric patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis J2 - PLOS ONE PY - 2015 VL - 10 SP - e0127213 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0127213 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 67. AU - Stevenson, MD AU - Oakley, JE AU - Lloyd Jones, M AU - Brennan, A AU - Compston, JE AU - McCloskey, EV AU - Selby, PL TI - The cost-effectiveness of an RCT to establish whether 5 or 10 years of bisphosphonate treatment is the better duration for women with a prior fracture J2 - Med Decis Making PY - 2009 VL - 29 SP - 678 EP - 689 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X09336077 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 68. AU - Meeyai, A AU - Praditsitthikorn, N AU - Kotirum, S AU - Kulpeng, W AU - Putthasri, W AU - Cooper, BS AU - Teerawattananon, Y TI - Seasonal influenza vaccination for children in Thailand: a cost-effectiveness analysis J2 - PLOS Med PY - 2015 VL - 12 SP - e1001829 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001829 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 69. AU - Colbourn, T AU - Asseburg, C AU - Bojke, L AU - Philips, Z AU - Claxton, K AU - Ades, AE AU - Gilbert, RE TI - Prenatal screening and treatment strategies to prevent group B streptococcal and other bacterial infections in early infancy: cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analyses J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2007 VL - 11 IS - 29 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta11290 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 70. AU - Girling, AJ AU - Freeman, G AU - Gordon, JP AU - Poole-Wilson, P AU - Scott, DA AU - Lilford, RJ TI - Modeling payback from research into the efficacy of left-ventricular assist devices as destination therapy J2 - Int J Technol Assess Health Care PY - 2007 VL - 23 SP - 269 EP - 277 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266462307070365 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 71. AU - Stevenson, MD AU - Oakley, JE AU - Chick, SE AU - Chalkidou, K TI - The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans J2 - J Oper Res Soc PY - 2009 VL - 60 SP - 506 EP - 518 UR - https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602580 ER - TY - CONF LB - 72. AU - De Persis, C AU - Wilson, S TI - Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Assessment of the Probability for an Explosion to Occur During the Atmospheric Re-Entry T2 - 67th International Astronautical Congress SP - 1021 CY - Guadalajara, Mexico DA - 26–30 September 2016 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 73. AU - Iglesias, CP AU - Thompson, A AU - Rogowski, WH AU - Payne, K TI - Reporting guidelines for the use of expert judgement in model-based economic evaluations J2 - PharmacoEconomics PY - 2016 VL - 34 SP - 1161 EP - 1172 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-016-0425-9 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 74. AU - Colson, AR AU - Cooke, RM TI - Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2017 VL - 163 SP - 109 EP - 120 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.02.003 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 75. AU - Eggstaff, JW AU - Mazzuchi, TA AU - Sarkani, S TI - The effect of the number of seed variables on the performance of Cooke’s classical model J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2014 VL - 121 SP - 72 EP - 82 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.015 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 76. AU - Clemen, RT TI - Comment on Cooke’s classical method J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2008 VL - 93 SP - 760 EP - 765 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2008.02.003 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 77. AU - Montibeller, G AU - von Winterfeldt, D TI - Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2015 VL - 35 SP - 1230 EP - 1251 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12360 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 78. AU - Philips, Z AU - Ginnelly, L AU - Sculpher, M AU - Claxton, K AU - Golder, S AU - Riemsma, R TI - Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2004 VL - 8 IS - 36 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta8360 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 79. AU - Budescu, DV AU - Chen, E J2 - Identifying expertise to extract the wisdom of crowds PY - 2015 VL - 61 SP - 267 EP - 280 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.1909 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 80. AU - Boring, R AU - Gertman, D AU - Joe, J AU - Marble, J AU - Galyean, W AU - Blackwood, L TI - Simplified Expert Elicitation Guideline For Risk Assessment Of Operating Events CY - Livermore, CA PB - U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission PY - 2005 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 81. AU - Bolger, F AU - Rowe, G TI - The aggregation of expert judgment: do good things come to those who weight? J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2015 VL - 35 SP - 5 EP - 11 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12272 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 82. AU - Burgman, MA AU - McBride, M AU - Ashton, R AU - Speirs-Bridge, A AU - Flander, L AU - Wintle, B TI - Expert status and performance J2 - PLOS ONE PY - 2011 VL - 6 SP - e22998 UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0022998 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 83. AU - Claxton, K AU - Sculpher, M AU - McCabe, C AU - Briggs, A AU - Akehurst, R AU - Buxton, M TI - Probabilistic sensitivity analysis for NICE technology assessment: not an optional extra J2 - Health Econ PY - 2005 VL - 14 SP - 339 EP - 347 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.985 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 84. AU - Akins, RB AU - Tolson, H AU - Cole, BR TI - Stability of response characteristics of a Delphi panel: application of bootstrap data expansion J2 - BMC Med Res Methodol PY - 2005 VL - 5 SP - 37 UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-5-37 ER - TY - ELEC LB - 85. AU - Gosling, JP TI - Methods for Eliciting Expert Opinion to Inform Health Technology Assessment PY - 2014 UR - www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Methods-for-eliciting-expert-opinion-to-inform-Gosling/38eba762cdaf5d6dae2fee2063bf776d5facec5b M1 - 1 November 2019 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 86. AU - Clemen, RT AU - Winkler, RL TI - Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis J2 - Risk Anal PY - 1999 VL - 19 SP - 187 EP - 203 UR - https://doi.org/Doi 10.1023/A:1006917509560 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 87. AU - O’Hagan, T AU - Oakley, JE TI - SHELF: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (Version 3.0). CY - Sheffield PB - School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield PY - 2016 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 88. AU - Fogel, L TI - Human Information Processing CY - Upper Saddle River, NJ PB - Prentice-Hall PY - 1967 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 89. AU - Seaver, D TI - Assessment of Group Preferences and Group Uncertainty for Decision-Making CY - California, USA PB - Social Science Research Institute PY - 1976 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 90. AU - Staël von Holstein, C-AS TI - Two techniques for assessment of subjective probability distributions – an experimental study J2 - Acta Psychologica PY - 1971 VL - 35 SP - 478 EP - 494 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(71)90005-9 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 91. AU - Winkler, RL TI - The assessment of prior distributions in Bayesian analysis J2 - J Am Stat Assoc PY - 1967 VL - 62 SP - 776 UR - https://doi.org/Doi 10.2307/2283671 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 92. AU - Thall, PF AU - Ursino, M AU - Baudouin, V AU - Alberti, C AU - Zohar, S TI - Bayesian treatment comparison using parametric mixture priors computed from elicited histograms J2 - Stat Methods Med Res PY - 2019 VL - 28 SP - 404 EP - 418 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280217726803 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 93. AU - Bornkamp, B AU - Ickstadt, K TI - A note on B-splines for semiparametric elicitation J2 - Am Stat PY - 2009 VL - 63 SP - 373 EP - 377 UR - https://doi.org/10.1198/tast.2009.08191 ER - TY - ELEC LB - 94. AU - Gosling, JP TI - On the Elicitation of Continuous, Symmetric, Unimodal Distributions PY - 2008 UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/0805.2044 M1 - 1 November 2019 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 95. AU - Oakley, JE AU - O’Hagan, A TI - Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach J2 - Biometrika PY - 2007 VL - 94 SP - 427 EP - 441 UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asm031 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 96. AU - Gosling, JP AU - Oakley, JE AU - O’Hagan, A TI - Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions J2 - Bayesian Anal PY - 2007 VL - 2 SP - 693 EP - 718 UR - https://doi.org/10.1214/07-ba228 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 97. AU - Moala, FA AU - O’Hagan, A TI - Elicitation of multivariate prior distributions: a nonparametric Bayesian approach J2 - J Stat Plan Inference PY - 2010 VL - 140 SP - 1635 EP - 1655 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2010.01.004 ER - TY - CHAP LB - 98. AU - Daneshkhah, A AU - Hosseinian-Far, A AU - Sedighi, T AU - Farsi, M TI - Prior Elicitation and Evaluation of Imprecise Judgements for Bayesian Analysis of System Reliability A2 - Hosseinian-Far, A A2 - Ramachandran, M A2 - Sarwar, D T2 - Strategic Engineering for Cloud Computing and Big Data Analytics CY - New York, NY PB - Springer PY - 2017 SP - 63 EP - 79 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52491-7_4 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 99. AU - Morris, P TI - Decision analysis expert use J2 - Management Sci PY - 1974 VL - 20 SP - 1233 EP - 1241 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.20.9.1233 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 100. AU - Morris, PA TI - Combining expert judgments: a Bayesian approach J2 - Management Sci PY - 1977 VL - 23 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.23.7.679 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 101. AU - Jacobs, RA TI - Methods for combining experts’ probability assessments J2 - Neural Comput PY - 1995 VL - 7 SP - 867 EP - 888 UR - https://doi.org/10.1162/neco.1995.7.5.867 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 102. AU - Lipscomb, J AU - Parmigiani, G AU - Hasselblad, V TI - Combining expert judgment by hierarchical modeling: an application to physician staffing J2 - Management Sci PY - 1998 VL - 44 SP - 149 EP - 161 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.2.149 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 103. AU - Albert, I AU - Donnet, S AU - Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, C AU - Lowchoy, S AU - L. Mengersen, K AU - Rousseau, J TI - Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation J2 - Bayesian Anal PY - 2012 VL - 7 SP - 503 EP - 532 UR - https://doi.org/10.1214/12-BA717 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 104. AU - West, M AU - Crosse, J TI - Modelling probabilistic agent opinion J2 - J R Stat Soc PY - 1992 VL - 24 SP - 285 EP - 299 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2345964 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 105. AU - Gelfand, AE AU - Mallick, BK AU - Dey, DK TI - Modeling expert opinion arising as a partial probabilistic specification J2 - J Am Stat Assoc PY - 1995 VL - 90 SP - 598 EP - 604 UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476552 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 106. AU - Lichtendahl, KC AU - Grushka-Cockayne, Y AU - Winkler, RL TI - Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles? J2 - Management Sci PY - 2013 VL - 59 SP - 1594 EP - 1611 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1667 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 107. AU - Bamber, JL AU - Aspinall, WP AU - Cooke, RM TI - A commentary on ‘how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise’ by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal J2 - Clim Change PY - 2016 VL - 137 SP - 321 EP - 328 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1672-7 ER - TY - EDBOOK LB - 108. AU - French, S TI - Group Consensus Probability Distributions: A Critical Survey. In Bernardo JM, editor TI - Bayesian Statistics 2 CY - Amsterdam PB - North-Holland PY - 1985 SP - 183 EP - 197 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 109. AU - Hammitt, JK AU - Zhang, Y TI - Combining experts’ judgments: comparison of algorithmic methods using synthetic data J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2013 VL - 33 SP - 109 EP - 120 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01833.x ER - TY - CHAP LB - 110. AU - Aspinall, WP AU - Cooke, RM TI - Quantifying Scientific Uncertainty from Expert Judgement Elicitation A2 - Rougier, J A2 - Sparks, S A2 - Hill, LJ T2 - Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards CY - Cambridge PB - Cambridge University Press PY - 2013 SP - 64 EP - 99 UR - https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139047562.005 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 111. AU - Cooke, RM AU - ElSaadany, S AU - Huang, X TI - On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes J2 - Reliability Engineering & System Safety PY - 2008 VL - 93 SP - 745 EP - 756 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.017 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 112. AU - Ranjan, R AU - Gneiting, T TI - Combining probability forecasts J2 - J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol PY - 2010 VL - 72 SP - 71 EP - 91 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2009.00726.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 113. AU - Rufo, MJ AU - Martin, J AU - Perez, CJ TI - Log-linear pool to combine prior distributions: a suggestion for a calibration-based approach J2 - Bayesian Anal PY - 2012 VL - 7 SP - 411 EP - 438 UR - https://doi.org/10.1214/12-BA714 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 114. AU - Hora, SC AU - Kardeş, E TI - Calibration, sharpness and the weighting of experts in a linear opinion pool J2 - Ann Oper Res PY - 2015 VL - 229 SP - 429 EP - 450 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1846-0 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 115. AU - Winkler, RL AU - Murphy, AH TI - ‘Good’ probability assessors J2 - J Appl Meteorol PY - 1968 VL - 7 SP - 751 EP - 758 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0751:PA>2.0.CO;2 ER - TY - CHAP LB - 116. AU - Quigley, J AU - Colson, A AU - Aspinall, W AU - Cooke, RM TI - Elicitation in the Classical Model A2 - Price, CC T2 - International Series in Operations Research and Management Science CY - UK PB - Spinger PY - 2018 SP - 15 EP - 36 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_2 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 117. AU - Wittmann, ME AU - Cooke, RM AU - Rothlisberger, JD AU - Lodge, DM TI - Using structured expert judgment to assess invasive species prevention: Asian carp and the Mississippi-Great Lakes hydrologic connection J2 - Environ Sci Technol PY - 2014 VL - 48 SP - 2150 EP - 2156 UR - https://doi.org/10.1021/es4043098 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 118. AU - Cooke, RM AU - Goossens, LLHJ TI - TU Delft expert judgment data base J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2008 VL - 93 SP - 657 EP - 674 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.005 ER - TY - CHAP LB - 119. AU - Cooke, RM TI - Validating Expert Judgment with the Classical Model A2 - Martini, C A2 - Boumans, M T2 - Experts and Consensus in Social Science CY - New York, NY PB - Springer PY - 2014 SP - 191 EP - 212 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-08551-7_10 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 120. AU - Mellers, B AU - Stone, E AU - Murray, T AU - Minster, A AU - Rohrbaugh, N AU - Bishop, M TI - Identifying and cultivating superforecasters as a method of improving probabilistic predictions J2 - Perspect Psychol Sci PY - 2015 VL - 10 SP - 267 EP - 281 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 121. AU - Hanea, AM AU - McBride, MF AU - Burgman, MA AU - Wintle, BC TI - The value of performance weights and discussion in aggregated expert judgments J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2018 VL - 38 SP - 1781 EP - 1794 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12992 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 122. AU - Morgenstern, O AU - Von Neumann, J TI - Theory of Games and Economic Behavior CY - Princeton, NJ PB - Princeton University Press PY - 1953 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 123. AU - Kahneman, D AU - Egan, P TI - Thinking, Fast and Slow CY - New York, NY PB - Farrar, Straus and Giroux PY - 2011 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 124. AU - Reyna, VF AU - Nelson, WL AU - Han, PK AU - Dieckmann, NF TI - How numeracy influences risk comprehension and medical decision making J2 - Psychol Bull PY - 2009 VL - 135 SP - 943 EP - 973 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/a0017327 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 125. AU - Tversky, A AU - Kahneman, D TI - Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases J2 - Science PY - 1974 VL - 185 SP - 1124 EP - 1131 UR - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 126. AU - Gigerenzer, G AU - Selten, R TI - Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox CY - Cambridge, MA PB - MIT Press PY - 2002 UR - https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/1654.001.0001 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 127. AU - Kynn, M TI - The ‘heuristics and biases’ bias in expert elicitation J2 - J R Stat Soc Series A PY - 2008 VL - 171 SP - 239 EP - 264 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 128. AU - Bojke, L AU - Grigore, B AU - Jankovic, D AU - Peters, J AU - Soares, M AU - Stein, K TI - Informing reimbursement decisions using cost-effectiveness modelling: a guide to the process of generating elicited priors to capture model uncertainties J2 - PharmacoEconomics PY - 2017 VL - 35 SP - 867 EP - 877 UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s40273-017-0525-1 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 129. AU - Bazerman, MH AU - Moore, DA TI - Judgment in Managerial Decision Making CY - UK PB - John Wiley & Sons PY - 2008 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 130. AU - McBride, MF AU - Fidler, F AU - Burgman, MA TI - Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of expert predictions under uncertainty: predicting the outcomes of ecological research J2 - Divers Distrib PY - 2012 VL - 18 SP - 782 EP - 794 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00884.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 131. AU - Tversky, A AU - Kahneman, D TI - Availability: a heuristic for judging frequency and probability J2 - Cogn Psychol PY - 1973 VL - 5 SP - 207 EP - 232 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 132. AU - Slovic, P AU - Fischhoff, B AU - Lichtenstein, S TI - Perceived risk: psychological factors and social implications J2 - Proc R Soc Lond A PY - 1981 VL - 376 SP - 17 EP - 34 UR - https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1981.0073 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 133. AU - Mehle, T AU - Gettys, CF AU - Manning, C AU - Baca, S AU - Fisher, S TI - The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments J2 - Acta Psychologica PY - 1981 VL - 49 SP - 127 EP - 140 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(81)90024-X ER - TY - JOUR LB - 134. AU - Soll, JB AU - Klayman, J TI - Overconfidence in interval estimates J2 - J Exp Psychol PY - 2004 VL - 30 SP - 299 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.2.299 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 135. AU - McKenzie, CR AU - Liersch, MJ AU - Yaniv, I TI - Overconfidence in interval estimates: what does expertise buy you? J2 - Organ Behav Hum Decis Process PY - 2008 VL - 107 SP - 179 EP - 191 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.007 ER - TY - EDBOOK LB - 136. AU - Larrick, RP TI - Debiasing. In Harvey N, editor TI - Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making CY - UK PB - Wiley-Blackwell PY - 2004 SP - 316 EP - 338 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470752937.ch16 ER - TY - CHAP LB - 137. AU - Soll, J AU - Milkman, K AU - Payne, J TI - A User’s Guide to Debiasing A2 - Keren, G A2 - Wu, G T2 - The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgement and Decision Making II CY - UK PB - John Wiley & Sons PY - 2015 SP - 924 EP - 951 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118468333.ch33 ER - TY - CONF LB - 138. AU - Clemen, RT AU - Lichtendahl, KC TI - Debiasing Expert Overconfidence: A Bayesian Calibration Model T2 - Sixth International Conference on Probablistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM6) SP - 1369 CY - San Juan, Puerto Rico DA - 23–28 June 2002 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 139. AU - Cooke, R AU - Shrader-Frechette, K TI - Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science CY - Oxford PB - Oxford University Press PY - 1991 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 140. AU - Lin, S-W AU - Bier, VM TI - A study of expert overconfidence J2 - Reliab Eng Syst Safety PY - 2008 VL - 93 SP - 711 EP - 721 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.014 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 141. AU - Bolger, F AU - Rowe, G TI - There is data, and then there is data: only experimental evidence will determine the utility of differential weighting of expert judgment J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2015 VL - 35 SP - 21 EP - 26 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12345 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 142. AU - Haran, U AU - Ritov, I AU - Mellers, BA TI - The role of actively open-minded thinking in information acquisition, accuracy, and calibration J2 - Judgm Decis Mak PY - 2013 VL - 8 SP - 188 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/t41728-000 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 143. AU - Plous, S TI - A comparison of strategies for reducing interval overconfidence in group judgments J2 - J Appl Psychol PY - 1995 VL - 80 SP - 443 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.80.4.443 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 144. AU - Haran, U AU - Moore, DA AU - Morewedge, CK TI - A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment J2 - Judgm Decis Mak PY - 2010 VL - 5 SP - 467 EP - 476 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/e615882011-200 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 145. AU - Speirs-Bridge, A AU - Fidler, F AU - McBride, M AU - Flander, L AU - Cumming, G AU - Burgman, M TI - Reducing overconfidence in the interval judgments of experts J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2010 VL - 30 SP - 512 EP - 523 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01337.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 146. AU - Teigen, KH AU - Jørgensen, M TI - When 90% confidence intervals are 50% certain: on the credibility of credible intervals J2 - Appl Cogn Psychol PY - 2005 VL - 19 SP - 455 EP - 475 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.1085 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 147. AU - Winman, A AU - Hansson, P AU - Juslin, P TI - Subjective probability intervals: how to reduce overconfidence by interval evaluation J2 - J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn PY - 2004 VL - 30 SP - 1167 EP - 1175 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.6.1167 ER - TY - CONF LB - 148. AU - Ferretti, V AU - Guney, S AU - Montibeller, G AU - von Winterfeldt, D TI - Testing Best Practices to Reduce the Overconfidence Bias in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis T2 - System Sciences (HICSS), 2016 49th Hawaii International Conference on, abstract no. 1381 SP - 1547 EP - 1555 UR - https://doi.org/10.1109/HICSS.2016.195 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 149. AU - Murphy, AH AU - Winkler, RL TI - Probability forecasts: a survey of national weather service forecasters J2 - Bull Am Meteorol Soc PY - 1974 VL - 55 SP - 1449 EP - 1452 UR - https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1974)055<1449:PFASON>2.0.CO;2 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 150. AU - Martin, TG AU - Burgman, MA AU - Fidler, F AU - Kuhnert, PM AU - Low-Choy, S AU - McBride, M AU - Mengersen, K TI - Eliciting expert knowledge in conservation science J2 - Conserv Biol PY - 2012 VL - 26 SP - 29 EP - 38 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01806.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 151. AU - Prava, VR AU - Clemen, RT AU - Hobbs, BF AU - Kenney, MA TI - Partition dependence and carryover biases in subjective probability assessment surveys for continuous variables: model-based estimation and correction J2 - Decis Anal PY - 2016 VL - 13 SP - 51 EP - 67 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0323 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 152. AU - Block, RA AU - Harper, DR TI - Overconfidence in estimation: testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis J2 - Organ Behav Hum Decis Process PY - 1991 VL - 49 SP - 188 EP - 207 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90048-X ER - TY - JOUR LB - 153. AU - Schall, DL AU - Doll, D AU - Mohnen, A TI - Caution! Warnings as a useless countermeasure to reduce overconfidence? An experimental evaluation in light of enhanced and dynamic warning designs J2 - J Behav Decis Mak PY - 2017 VL - 30 SP - 347 EP - 358 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.1946 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 154. AU - Arkes, HR TI - Costs and benefits of judgment errors: implications for debiasing J2 - Psychol Bull PY - 1991 VL - 110 SP - 486 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.110.3.486 ER - TY - CONF LB - 155. AU - Welsh, MB AU - Begg, SH AU - Bratvold, RB TI - Efficacy of Bias Awareness in Debiasing Oil and Gas Judgments. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society PY - 2007 VL - 29 SP - 1647 EP - 1652 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 156. AU - Morewedge, CK AU - Yoon, H AU - Scopelliti, I AU - Symborski, CW AU - Korris, JH AU - Kassam, KS TI - Debiasing decisions: improved decision making with a single training intervention J2 - Policy Insights Behav Brain Sci PY - 2015 VL - 2 SP - 129 EP - 140 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/2372732215600886 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 157. AU - Snyder, M AU - Swann, WB TI - Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction J2 - J Pers Soc Psychol PY - 1978 VL - 36 SP - 1202 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.36.11.1202 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 158. AU - Nisbett, RE AU - Ross, L TI - Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment CY - Upper Saddle River, NJ PB - Prentice Hall PY - 1980 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 159. AU - Downs, JS AU - Shafir, E TI - Why some are perceived as more confident and more insecure, more reckless and more cautious, more trusting and more suspicious, than others: enriched and impoverished options in social judgment J2 - Psychon Bull Rev PY - 1999 VL - 6 SP - 598 EP - 610 UR - https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03212968 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 160. AU - Abbas, AE AU - Budescu, DV AU - Yu, H-T AU - Haggerty, R TI - A comparison of two probability encoding methods: fixed probability vs. fixed variable values J2 - Decis Anal PY - 2008 VL - 5 SP - 190 EP - 202 UR - https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1080.0126 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 161. AU - Nemet, GF AU - Anadon, LD AU - Verdolini, E TI - Quantifying the effects of expert selection and elicitation design on experts’ confidence in their judgments about future energy technologies J2 - Risk Anal PY - 2017 VL - 37 SP - 315 EP - 330 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12604 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 162. AU - Briggs, A AU - Claxton, K AU - Sculpher, M TI - Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation CY - Oxford PB - Oxford University Press PY - 2006 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 163. AU - Brennan, A AU - Chick, SE AU - Davies, R TI - A taxonomy of model structures for economic evaluation of health technologies J2 - Health Econ PY - 2006 VL - 15 SP - 1295 EP - 1310 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.1148 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 164. AU - Cao, Q AU - Buskens, E AU - Feenstra, T AU - Jaarsma, T AU - Hillege, H AU - Postmus, D TI - Continuous-time semi-Markov models in health economic decision making: an illustrative example in heart failure disease management J2 - Med Decis Making PY - 2016 VL - 36 SP - 59 EP - 71 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X15593080 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 165. AU - Karnon, J AU - Stahl, J AU - Brennan, A AU - Caro, JJ AU - Mar, J AU - Möller, J AU - ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force TI - Modeling using discrete event simulation: a report of the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force – 4 J2 - Value Health PY - 2012 VL - 15 SP - 821 EP - 827 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2012.04.013 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 166. AU - Davis, S AU - Stevenson, M AU - Tappenden, P AU - Wailoo, A TI - NICE DSU Technical Support Document 15: Cost-Effectiveness Modelling Using Patient-Level Simulation CY - London PB - National Institute for Health and Care Excellence PY - 2014 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 167. AU - Collett, D TI - Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research CY - Boca Raton, FL PB - CRC Press PY - 2015 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 168. AU - Putter, H AU - Fiocco, M AU - Geskus, RB TI - Tutorial in biostatistics: competing risks and multi-state models J2 - Stat Med PY - 2007 VL - 26 SP - 2389 EP - 2430 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2712 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 169. AU - Welton, NJ AU - Ades, AE TI - Estimation of markov chain transition probabilities and rates from fully and partially observed data: uncertainty propagation, evidence synthesis, and model calibration J2 - Med Decis Making PY - 2005 VL - 25 SP - 633 EP - 645 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X05282637 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 170. AU - Sharples, LD AU - Taylor, GI AU - Faddy, M TI - A piecewise-homogeneous Markov chain process of lung transplantation J2 - J Epidemiol Biostat PY - 2001 VL - 6 SP - 349 EP - 355 UR - https://doi.org/10.1080/13595220152601828 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 171. AU - Brard, C AU - Le Teuff, G AU - Le Deley, MC AU - Hampson, LV TI - Bayesian survival analysis in clinical trials: what methods are used in practice? J2 - Clin Trials PY - 2017 VL - 14 SP - 78 EP - 87 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/1740774516673362 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 172. AU - Miksad, RA AU - Gönen, M AU - Lynch, TJ AU - Roberts, TG TI - Interpreting trial results in light of conflicting evidence: a Bayesian analysis of adjuvant chemotherapy for non-small-cell lung cancer J2 - J Clin Oncol PY - 2009 VL - 27 SP - 2245 EP - 2252 UR - https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2008.16.2586 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 173. AU - Johnson, SR AU - Tomlinson, GA AU - Hawker, GA AU - Granton, JT AU - Feldman, BM TI - Methods to elicit beliefs for Bayesian priors: a systematic review J2 - J Clin Epidemiol PY - 2010 VL - 63 SP - 355 EP - 369 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2009.06.003 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 174. AU - Hutton, JL AU - Owens, RG TI - Bayesian sample size calculations and prior beliefs about child sexual abuse J2 - J R Stat Soc Series D PY - 1993 VL - 42 SP - 399 EP - 404 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2348473 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 175. AU - Johnson, NP AU - Fisher, RA AU - Braunholtz, DA AU - Gillett, WR AU - Lilford, RJ TI - Survey of Australasian clinicians’ prior beliefs concerning lipiodol flushing as a treatment for infertility: a Bayesian study J2 - Aust N Z J Obstet Gynaecol PY - 2006 VL - 46 SP - 298 EP - 304 UR - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1479-828X.2006.00596.x ER - TY - JOUR LB - 176. AU - Lilford, R TI - Formal measurement of clinical uncertainty: prelude to a trial in perinatal medicine. The Fetal Compromise Group J2 - BMJ PY - 1994 VL - 308 SP - 111 EP - 112 UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.308.6921.111 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 177. AU - Wilson, ECF AU - Usher-Smith, JA AU - Emery, J AU - Corrie, PG AU - Walter, FM TI - Expert elicitation of multinomial probabilities for decision-analytic modeling: an application to rates of disease progression in undiagnosed and untreated melanoma J2 - Value Health PY - 2018 VL - 21 SP - 669 EP - 676 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2017.10.009 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 178. AU - Vargas, C AU - Bilbeny, N AU - Balmaceda, C AU - Rodríguez, MF AU - Zitko, P AU - Rojas, R TI - Costs and consequences of chronic pain due to musculoskeletal disorders from a health system perspective in Chile J2 - Pain Rep PY - 2018 VL - 3 SP - e656 UR - https://doi.org/10.1097/PR9.0000000000000656 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 179. AU - Ren, S AU - Oakley, JE TI - Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes J2 - Stat Med PY - 2014 VL - 33 SP - 31 EP - 45 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.5916 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 180. AU - Chaloner, K AU - Rhame, FS TI - Quantifying and documenting prior beliefs in clinical trials J2 - Stat Med PY - 2001 VL - 20 SP - 581 EP - 600 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.694 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 181. AU - Chaloner, K AU - Church, T AU - Louis, TA AU - Matts, JP TI - Graphical elicitation of a prior distribution for a clinical trial J2 - J R Stat Soc Series D PY - 1993 VL - 42 SP - 341 EP - 353 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2348469 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 182. AU - Freedman, LS AU - Spiegelhalter, DJ TI - The assessment of the subjective opinion and its use in relation to stopping rules for clinical trials J2 - J R Stat Soc Series D PY - 1983 VL - 32 SP - 153 EP - 160 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2987606 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 183. AU - Spiegelhalter, DJ AU - Freedman, LS AU - Parmar, MK TI - Applying Bayesian ideas in drug development and clinical trials J2 - Stat Med PY - 1993 VL - 12 SP - 1501 EP - 1511 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780121516 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 184. AU - Parmar, MK AU - Spiegelhalter, DJ AU - Freedman, LS TI - The CHART trials: Bayesian design and monitoring in practice. CHART Steering Committee J2 - Stat Med PY - 1994 VL - 13 SP - 1297 EP - 1312 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780131304 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 185. AU - Parmar, MK AU - Griffiths, GO AU - Spiegelhalter, DJ AU - Souhami, RL AU - Altman, DG AU - van der Scheuren, E AU - CHART steering committee TI - Monitoring of large randomised clinical trials: a new approach with Bayesian methods J2 - Lancet PY - 2001 VL - 358 SP - 375 EP - 381 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(01)05558-1 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 186. AU - White, IR AU - Pocock, SJ AU - Wang, D TI - Eliciting and using expert opinions about influence of patient characteristics on treatment effects: a Bayesian analysis of the CHARM trials J2 - Stat Med PY - 2005 VL - 24 SP - 3805 EP - 3821 UR - https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2420 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 187. AU - Singpurwalla, ND TI - An interactive PC-based procedure for reliability assessment incorporating expert opinion and survival data J2 - J Am Stat Assoc PY - 1988 VL - 83 SP - 43 EP - 51 UR - https://doi.org/10.2307/2288917 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 188. AU - Claxton, KP AU - Sculpher, MJ TI - Using value of information analysis to prioritise health research: some lessons from recent UK experience J2 - PharmacoEconomics PY - 2006 VL - 24 SP - 1055 EP - 1068 UR - https://doi.org/10.2165/00019053-200624110-00003 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 189. AU - Wang, H AU - Dash, D AU - Druzdzel, MJ TI - A method for evaluating elicitation schemes for probabilistic models J2 - IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern B Cybern PY - 2002 VL - 32 SP - 38 EP - 43 UR - https://doi.org/10.1109/3477.979958 ER - TY - DATA LB - 190. AU - Chang, W AU - Cheng, J AU - Allaire, LL AU - Xie, Y AU - McPherson, J TI - Shiny: Web Application Framework for R R package version 1.4.0UR - https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=shiny ER - TY - JOUR LB - 191. AU - Cokely, ET AU - Galesic, M AU - Schulz, E AU - Ghazal, S AU - Garcia-Retamero, R TI - Measuring risk literacy: the Berlin Numeracy Test J2 - Judgm Decis Mak PY - 2012 VL - 7 SP - 25 EP - 47 UR - https://doi.org/10.1037/t45862-000 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 192. AU - Scott, SG AU - Bruce, RA TI - Decision-making style: the development and assessment of a new measure J2 - Educ Psychol Meas PY - 1995 VL - 55 SP - 818 EP - 831 UR - https://doi.org/10.1177/0013164495055005017 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 193. AU - Rowe, G AU - Wright, G TI - The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis J2 - Int J Forecast PY - 1999 VL - 15 SP - 353 EP - 375 UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00018-7 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 194. AU - Tetlock, P AU - Gardner, D TI - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction CY - London PB - Random House PY - 2016 ER - TY - CHAP LB - 195. AU - Cooke, R TI - Elicitation in the Classical Model A2 - Dias, C A2 - Morton, A A2 - Quigley, J T2 - Elicitation. The Science and Art of Structuring Judgement CY - New York, NY PB - Springer PY - 2017 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 196. AU - Spiegelhalter, DJ AU - Myles, JP AU - Jones, DR AU - Abrams, KR TI - Bayesian methods in health technology assessment: a review J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2000 VL - 4 IS - 38 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta4380 ER - TY - JOUR LB - 197. AU - Harnan, SE AU - Tappenden, P AU - Essat, M AU - Gomersall, T AU - Minton, J AU - Wong, R TI - Measurement of exhaled nitric oxide concentration in asthma: a systematic review and economic evaluation of NIOX MINO, NIOX VERO and NObreath J2 - Health Technol Assess PY - 2015 VL - 19 IS - 82 UR - https://doi.org/10.3310/hta19820 ER - TY - BOOK LB - 198. AU - Soares, M AU - Claxton, K AU - Schulpher, M TI - Health Opportunity Costs in the NHS: Assessing the Implications of Uncertainty Using Elicitation Methods with Experts CY - York, Sheffield PB - Universities of Sheffield and York PY - 2017 ER -